During the first half of 2023 financial markets defied the chorus of forecasters who anticipated that crippling interest rates would soon lead to earnings declines, recession, and investment losses. Overall, investors enjoyed better than usual returns despite relentlessly negative media headlines.
The first quarter of 2023 generated positive returns for both stock and bond investors despite turmoil in the banking sector and the failures of Credit Suisse, Silicon Valley Bank, and Signature Bank. Inflation has drifted lower and the Federal Reserve has begun to tone down its hawkish language, suggesting an easing of monetary tightening with fewer and smaller interest rate hikes in the future. Corporate profits have remained strong, and the employment market has been surprisingly robust in the face of a gradually slowing economy.
December 2022 marked 20 years since LongView was founded. During these two decades, we have weathered many historic challenges together. Through all these ups and downs, we have strived to maintain a steady hand, preserving and growing our clients’ portfolios by adhering to fundamental investment principles and keeping our eye on your long-term goals.
Global markets have left investors with few places to hide in 2022. Stubbornly high inflation has sparked the most aggressive interest rate increases by central banks in decades, contributing to concerns about recession. Nevertheless, we encourage you to hold tight, knowing that things will get better, that much of the downturn is already behind us, and that bear markets do not last forever.
Financial markets saw a widespread increase in volatility during the quarter, with large daily price swings. Although the global economy continues to rebound from the pandemic-induced recession, early indicators suggest that ongoing supply problems, inflation, and central bank tightening, are hampering the pace of recovery.
So far 2022 has presented the most challenging environment since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, and markets could fall further from here. Nevertheless, the bear market in stocks and bonds has brought prices down to levels that are beginning to attract the interest of long-term investors. We believe the coming year will offer a host of opportunities for investors who aren’t derailed by volatility and who remain committed to their long-term investment plans.
For a year that began with the storming of the US Capitol and a worsening supply chain crisis, then proceeded through a series of devastating natural disasters, and ended with soaring inflation and a dramatic surge in COVID cases, 2021 was remarkably generous to investors.
After many months of back-to-back gains, global stock markets faltered in September and ended the third quarter on a slightly down note, marking a pause in the remarkable rally since the COVID lows 18 months ago. The lull may be ascribed generally to the pandemic. Renewed lockdowns caused by the Delta variant this summer forced factories in many countries to keep workers home and cut back production, even as demand for goods swelled. Meanwhile, shortages of raw materials and labor tangled supply chains, throwing global trade into disarray and exposing the vulnerability of just-in- time inventory management.
The global economy is experiencing one of the strongest synchronized expansions since the 1980’s as vaccination campaigns reach a growing percentage of the population, governments ease COVID mobility restrictions, and demand for goods and services surges. This has been especially true in the US, which posted an annualized growth rate of 6.4% in the first quarter.
The first quarter of 2021 was marked by a sea change in financial markets around the world. Equities continued to power higher on the back of a recovering global economy, and the MSCI All-Country World Index gained +4.57%. Conversely, improving growth expectations contributed to a significant increase in interest rates, pushing the broad bond market down by over 3%.
2020 was a year of loss, upheaval, and adaptation with few parallels in recent history. For investors, it was a year of radical uncertainty and extreme volatility, including the steepest market decline and the swiftest recovery ever, a global economic shutdown, and monetary and fiscal stimulus programs that dwarfed all precedents. In the US, we lost 22 million jobs and regained 12 million, impeached one president, elected his successor, and marched by the millions to protest racism and police violence.
Despite 2020’s volatile mix of ingredients, the third quarter was a period of relative calm for investors.